Political Instability in the Western Sahel: Reason(s) for increased Coups D’état.
The Sahel region is confronted with several political, social, economic and security challenges. These challenges are further exacerbated by the ever-growing threat of terrorism and violent extremism in the region. Countries in the Western Sahel region particularly Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Burkina Faso and even Nigeria have continued to witness terrorist attacks thanks to the fragility of most of these states. Noteworthy is the fact that Western Sahel has witnessed seven coups d’etat and counter coups in the past four years with at least three successful ones.
On July 28, 2023, the head of Niger’s Presidential guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, declared himself head of state after the military seized power. Shortly after, the overthrown head of state, Mohammed Bazoum communicated from the Presidential Palace that, he was going to fight and regain the democracy that Nigeriens had fought for years. However, in a twist turn of events, the Chief of Nigerien defence forces pledged his loyalty to the Military junta, essentially crippling Bazoum’s efforts to regain control.
An emergency meeting held by Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Abuja, Nigeria, released a statement demanding the immediate release and reinstatement of the duly elected president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum who had been held by the military since July 19. The regional bloc has gone a step ahead to issue a one-week ultimatum to the military to cede to its demands or else take necessary measures including force to restore constitutional order in the country. The coup leaders on their part have warned ECOWAS and African Union of any attempt to intervene militarily.
Historical Perspective
It is important to note that most African countries have experienced some form of Political instability after gaining independence typically characterized by military takeover of democratically elected governments or counter coups. The ensuing political instability in the continent led to deterioration of security and thus slowed economic growth. Mid-1980s and early 1990s saw a push for multiparty democracy in the continent leading to adoption of democratic rule in the continent including Sahel region. The new democratic regimes in most African states came up with constitutional orders making unconstitutional takeovers of government unconstitutional.
However, the democratic gains made in wake of 21st century have since waned into thin air at an alarming rate. Among the issues that experts have touted for the failure of the democratic regimes are bad governance, poverty, corruption, unemployment, terrorism and violent extremism. Western Sahel has been the region that has been immensely hit by the wave of unconstitutional takeover of governments.
While the issues raised above have been cited by most coup plotters including Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso who stated that immediate intervention was necessary to salvage the country from inevitable collapse, there seems to be other issues that have precipitated the latest coup d’état in the Western Sahel region. Among these issues are the two main ones: the vested interests and presence of foreign powers; and the weakness of the regional blocs.
Reason(s) for the Latest Coup D’état in Western Sahel
The fragility of most states in the Western Sahel region can be attributed to the rise in insecurity and declining economic prospects. All these is happening against a backdrop of increased foreign forces in the region especially from United States and France. This increase has not deterred several insurgent groups such as the Al-Qaeda, Islamic State affiliates and Boko Haram from operating in the region and conducting periodic attacks that has seen the deaths and displacements of thousands of people in the past decade.
1. Increased Presence of Foreign Powers in the region
The large number of foreign military troops and their bases in the Sahel region especially Niger has not been well received by the military and the civilians as they believe this undermines their sovereignty. It important to note that France increased interest in the region is due to the huge investments it has made in the mining sectors of the countries in the Sahel region. In 2019, US opened the largest drone base in the world in Niger despite protest from the public who felt that it could jeopardize their national security by making Niger a target for terrorists.
2. Failure of the Regional Blocs
The failure of the regional bloc like the African Union (AU) and ECOWAS to take a firm stance against military seizures in States like Burkina Faso, Senegal, Guinea and Mali has emboldened the Nigerien military. These regional blocs have been considered as “toothless bulldogs.” For instance, ECOWAS has now threatened use of force to restore Bazoum to power if the Coup plotters do not reinstate him.
On the other hand, the coup plotters have warned ECOWAS not to interfere into their internal affairs or worse still intervene militarily. In a round table discussion at the Chatham House, London, one key figure in the region intimated that they kept communication avenues open for some three military heads of state as a courtesy. Essentially, it suggests that the regional bloc, ECOWAS, has no deterrence for the takeovers.
Implications of the Coups for the Region
The ongoing political crisis in the Western Sahel will undoubtedly have a significant impact in the fight against insurgency and violent extremism in the region. There will be a vacuum in terms of strategic direction need to fight insurgency at the national level. Since as the military transition authorities wrestle for power in the capital cities of these states, terrorist and violent extremist groups will benefit from the distraction.
Beyond the leadership vacuum, the States’ capacity to fight terrorism and violent extremism may be weakened due to regional and international sanctions as well as local challenges.
On the other hand, the influence of Russia and Wagner Group could significantly grow in the region. This because the leader of the group already congratulated the coup plotters of Niger for seizing power. However, it's important to note that Wagner are yet to halt any terrorist advancement in Mali and Burkina Faso where they are actively involved.
It is important to note that military takeovers in the region spells doom for democracy that was hardly earned. Therefore, African Union and ECOWAS ought to undertake a joint assessment of the region to understand the underlying causes for the recurring coups d’état.
